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2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Vile's Prediction)
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season saw slightly below average activity, mainly due to colder than average SSTs and a weak el nino event. It officially started on June 1, 2018 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. For the fourth and final year in a row, however, the season began before the official start on June 1, with Subtropical Storm Alberto forming on May 25. The season ended with Hurricane Kirk's dissipation on October 29. During the season, eleven tropical storms formed, of which five intensified into hurricanes, and two intensified further into major hurricanes. Compared to the last several years, land impact was low: only about $9 Billion in damage occurred. The most significant storm of the season was Hurricane Florence, which caused $9 Billion in damage when it made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. It was the strongest hurricane to strike the Florida panhandle since Hurricane Dennis in 2005. Other notable storms include Subtropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Isaac, and Tropical Storm Joyce. While none of these other storms caused significant damage, all of them caused damage and loss of life in the United States, and Central America. While initial forecasts for 2018 anticipated an active season, anomalous cooling of the tropical atlantic, and the development of a weak el nino, resulted in forecasters lowering their numbers for the season. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:750 height:210 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2016 till:01/12/2016 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/05/2016 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:25/05/2016 till:31/05/2016 color:TS text:"Alberto (SS)" from:23/06/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:TS text:"Beryl (TS)" from:14/07/2016 till:17/07/2016 color:TS text:"Chris (TS)" from:08/08/2016 till:10/08/2016 color:TD text:"Four (TD)" from:25/08/2016 till:03/09/2016 color:C3 text:"Debby (C3)" from:28/08/2016 till:04/09/2016 color:C1 text:"Ernesto (C1)" from:03/09/2016 till:14/09/2016 color:C4 text:"Florence (C4)" barset:break from:06/09/2016 till:12/09/2016 color:TS text:"Gordon (TS)" from:10/09/2016 till:13/09/2016 color:TS text:"Helene (TS)" from:23/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 color:C2 text:"Isaac (C2)" from:03/10/2016 till:05/10/2016 color:TS text:"Joyce (TS)" from:23/10/2016 till:29/10/2016 color:C1 text:"Kirk (C1)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2016 till:01/06/2016 text:May from:01/06/2016 till:01/07/2016 text:June from:01/07/2016 till:01/08/2016 text:July from:01/08/2016 till:01/09/2016 text:August from:01/09/2016 till:01/10/2016 text:September from:01/10/2016 till:01/11/2016 text:October from:01/11/2016 till:01/12/2016 text:November TextData = pos:(520,30) text:"(From the" pos:(568,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" The season's activity was reflected with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating of 63, which is below the 1981–2010 median of 92. Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. Therefore, a storm with a longer duration or stronger intensity, such as Debby, will have high values of ACE. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). Storms Subtropical Storm Alberto In late May, Central American Gyre developed in the western caribbean sea. A broad area of low pressure formed over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, and developed into Subtropical Storm Alberto on May 25. For several days, moderate levels of wind shear prevented Alberto from intensifying much as it exited the Caribbean sea. When it entered the gulf of Mexico, shear relaxed, allowing Alberto to finally intensify. On May 27, Alberto attained peak intensity with winds of 65 mph, before dry air resulted in weakening. Alberto made landfall in Laguna Beach, Florida early the next morning, with maximum winds of 45 mph. Despite being over land, Alberto held on for several days, finally becoming post-tropical over northeastern Michigan on May 31. Tropical Storm Beryl A low pressure area developed in the Caribbean sea on June 20. It moved west, and conditions were favorable in the Bay of Campeche. Thus, the system was monitored for tropical development. The system moved over the Yucatan Peninsula, continuing to get better organized despite interacting with land. Upon emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on June 23, it quickly developed a surface circulation as convective bursts occurred. Later that day, recon evidence confirmed that Tropical Depression Two had formed. It initially didn't intensify much due to some dry air, but the next day, it managed to strengthen into Tropical Storm Beryl. Beryl was only able to intensify slightly before making landfall near Veracruz, Mexico, with peak winds of 45 mph. Beryl quickly weakened over Mexico's mountainous terrain, and dissipated on June 25. Tropical Storm Chris In July, a large trough was moving south over the United States. The eastern half split off, and dropped heavy rain over North Carolina. It then emerged over the Gulf stream, where it developed into Tropical Depression Three on July 14. Initially, models supported a Category 1 hurricane, but the system struggled with wind shear early on. It intensified into Tropical Storm Chris about 18 hours later. Chris gradually intensified as it accelerated along the Gulf stream, peaking with winds of 50 mph late on July 16. Early the next day, Chris began to weaken in response to rapidly cooling waters. Chris was declared post-tropical on July 17, although the remnants persisted for several more days. Tropical Depression Four The first major tropical wave of the season, which arrived unusually late, moved off the coast of Africa on August 7. Mostly favorable conditions allowed for Tropical Depression Four to form the next day, situated south of the Cape Verde islands. Despite being forecast to intensify, cooler sea surface temperatures and some dry air prevented any further intensification. Four began to weaken on August 9, and it dissipated the following day. Hurricane Debby On August 19, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa. The wave struggled in the hostile tropical Atlantic, nearly dissipating at one point. However, fairly consistent convective bursts allowed it to survive as it approached the subtropics, where it met the classifications to be declared Tropical Depression Five on August 25, ending an unusual two-week tropical cyclone drought in the month of August. Now in a low shear, warm-water environment, it became Tropical Storm Debby only twelve hours later. Debby slowly intensified, and was upgraded to the season's first hurricane on August 28. Debby continued to intensify as shear lessened further, and became a Category 2 hurricane. The storm's eye cleared out as it transitioned into a major hurricane on August 31, becoming the first one of the season. Debby peaked early the next morning, with 120 mph winds. Debby then began to weaken due to cooler SSTs and a beginning eyewall replacement cycle. Debby curved northeast, and weakened below hurricane intensity on September 2. Early on September 3, Debby became post-tropical as it accelerated east. Hurricane Ernesto Prior to Debby's wave, a tropical wave emerged off Africa on August 17. It did not develop further as it moved across the main development region, but slowly got better organized as shear decreased in the western tropical Atlantic. On August 28, despite lukewarm SSTs, it developed into Tropical Storm Ernesto about 100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Ernesto reached an initial peak of 50 mph before wind shear increased, causing Ernesto to weaken to a tropical depression. As the storm exited the tropical Atlantic, Ernesto re-intensified into a tropical storm, despite it had been expected to dissipate. The storm developed a ragged eyewall as convection increased, and Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane on September 1. Initially, Ernesto was classified as a minimal hurricane, but was upgraded to a peak of 80 mph in post analysis. Another increase in wind shear caused Ernesto to weaken. The storm moved erratically due to a collapse in steering currents, and it dissipated on September 4, while passing just west of Bermuda. Hurricane Florence Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Storm Helene Hurricane Isaac Tropical Storm Joyce Hurricane Kirk Season Effects This is a table of all the storms that formed in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, affected areas, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table. Storm Names The following list of names was used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2018. This was the same list used in the 2012 season with the exception of Sara, which replaced Sandy. Retirement On April 23, 2019, at the 41st session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Florence, due to the damages and deaths it caused. It will be replaced with Faith for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.Category:VileMaster Category:Predictions Category:2018 Atlantic hurricane season Category:Below Average Category:El Nino years